CrackitToday App

UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026

Kumari Sonali

UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2026:

 

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has released the 17th edition of its flagship Emissions Gap Report (EGR) 2026, titled “The Point of Return: Urgent emissions cuts needed to come back from overshoot of 1.5°C”.

  • The report notes that the opportunity to limit global warming to 1.5°C with “no or limited” overshoot has been lost. The report arrives just before COP31 (31st Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC) (Antalya, Türkiye, November 2026).
  • The UNEP EGR 2026 warns of an inevitable 1.5°C overshoot under current trajectories, highlighting inadequate emission cuts, insufficient NDCs and the need for urgent global climate action.
  • India must accelerate renewable energy, strengthen carbon markets, decarbonise heavy industries and secure climate finance while upholding climate justice, CBDR-RC and developmental equity.

Key findings of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2026:

  • The End of the “No Overshoot” 1.5°C Pathway: Decades of insufficient climate action have made overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit inevitable.
  • UNEP’s lowest-overshoot scenario estimates a 66% chance of limiting peak warming to 1.7–1.8°C and a 50% chance of returning to 1.5°C by 2100, provided stringent emission cuts begin immediately.
  • Without immediate mitigation, every five years of emissions at current levels would add approximately 200 GtCO₂, increasing peak warming by around 0.1°C.
  • The pathway also requires about 320 GtCO₂ of carbon dioxide removal this century, whose large-scale feasibility remains uncertain.
  • The gap between conditional NDCs and the lowest 1.5°C overshoot pathway is projected to widen from 5 GtCO₂e in 2030 to 16 GtCO₂e in 2035.
  • The apparent narrowing of the 2030 implementation gap largely reflects the USA’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, rather than stronger climate action.
  • G20 members (excluding the African Union) account for approximately 76% of global GHG emissions, making accelerated action by major emitters critical to closing the emissions gap.
  • Under current policies, only six G20 members are likely to meet their unconditional 2030 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) targets.
  • Temperature outlook: Global warming is projected to reach 2.8°C by 2100 under current policies, falling to 2.6°C if all NDCs are implemented and to 2.1°C if all net-zero pledges are also fulfilled.
  • The efforts under the Paris Agreement have reduced projected warming from 4°C to 2.8°C, but this remains above the 1.5°C goal.
  • Progress on the First GST outcomes: The first Global Stocktake (GST) at COP28 called for tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy-efficiency improvement rates by 2030, transitioning away from fossil fuels, reducing methane emissions and halting deforestation.
  • Progress is evident, with renewable capacity growing three times faster than projected in 2015 and solar PV seven times faster.
  • Global renewable capacity could reach 11,500 GW by 2030, while electric vehicles account for around one in four cars sold worldwide. However, fossil fuel consumption and subsidies continue to rise.
  • Deforestation must decline more than ten times faster to meet the 2030 target. Thus, renewable energy expansion alone is insufficient without fossil fuel phase-down and stronger action on non-CO₂ emissions.
  • As of September 2026, 124 Parties covering 76% of global emissions had submitted new NDCs.
  • However, their impact on projected warming remains negligible, as emission reduction targets remain insufficient.
  • Only India, Tunisia and Uzbekistan retain emissions-intensity targets, and full implementation would reduce 2035 emissions by just 3.5–4 GtCO₂e compared with 2030 NDC levels.
  • Limiting the 1.5°C overshoot requires global GHG emission reductions of 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, relative to 2025 levels, far exceeding existing NDC commitments.
  • India:
    • Low Per Capita Burden: Despite being the third-largest absolute emitter (~4.5 GtCO₂e) after China and the US.
    • India’s per capita emissions (~3.1 tCO₂e) are less than half the world average (6.4 tCO₂e), underscoring the principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR-RC).
    • NDC Compliance: India is one of only six G20 members projected to meet its unconditional 2030 targets under current policies, driven by structural shifts towards renewables and robust domestic policies like the Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) and PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana.
    • However, the report notes a caveat, because India uses an intensity target rather than an absolute reduction target, absolute emissions are projected to rise between 2030 and 2035 due to GDP growth.