2°C Warming By 2050:
A study published titled “contradicted projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)”., states that the planet is likely to warm up by two degrees Celsius by 2050, even under a low-emission scenario.
- The researchers used artificial intelligence called Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to predict the time for reaching the 1.5 °C and 2°C thresholds.
- The world has recorded a 1.1°C rise in temperature compared with the average in 1850-1900.
Key Findings:
- There is a higher likelihood that 2°C will be reached under the low emission scenario compared with the IPCC AR6 (Sixth Assessment Report) synthesis assessment, and may fail to uphold the Paris Agreement.
- The Paris Agreement aims to limit the rise to below 2°C while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C.
- The IPCC estimated that the 1.5°C threshold could be attained as early as the 2030s under all emission scenarios.
- Global warming is already on the verge of crossing the 1.5°C threshold, even if the climate forcing pathway is substantially reduced in the near term.
- The threshold of 1.5°C will reach somewhere between 2033 and 2035 in the high, intermediate and low forcing scenarios.
- The world could touch 2°C by 2050 under the high-emission scenario, 2049 and 2054 in the intermediate and low-emission scenarios, respectively.
- In contrast, the IPCC estimated the likelihood of touching 2°C of global warming during the mid-21st century is high under a high-emission scenario.
