OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Agricultural Outlook 2025-2034 report, offers a 10-year outlook on global agricultural and fish markets to guide evidence-based policymaking.
- Global cereal production is expected to grow at 1.1% annually, driven largely by yield increases (0.9% per year). However, the expansion of harvested area will slow to 0.14% annually through 2034.
- By 2034, 40% of cereal production will be consumed directly by humans, while 33% will be used for animal feed and 27% will be diverted to biofuels and industrial uses.
- By 2034, India and Southeast Asia will drive 39% of global cereal consumption growth, while China’s share will fall to 13% from 32%, reflecting changing consumption trends.
- Biofuel demand is projected to grow at 0.9% annually, primarily due to increases in countries like Brazil, India, and Indonesia.
- Global agricultural and fish production is projected to grow by 14% through 2034, primarily driven by productivity gains in middle-income nations.
- However, this growth will also lead to a 6% increase in agricultural greenhouse gas emissions.
- Global per capita calorie intake from livestock and fish products is expected to increase by 6% over the next decade, driven by growth in lower-middle-income countries, where intake is anticipated to rise by 24% nearly four times the global average.
- This increase will raise daily intake in lower-middle-income countries to 364 kcal, but low-income countries will remain far behind, with an intake of just 143 kcal, well below the 300 kcal/day target for a healthy diet.
