Global Annual To Decadal Climate Update Report:
According to the global annual to decadal climate update report issued by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), India could be among the few regions globally where below normal temperatures have been predicted for the year 2022 and the next four years.
- The year 2022 will be cooler (compared to the 1991 – 2020 average) over India, along with Alaska and Canada.
- The annual update harnesses the expertise of internationally acclaimed climate scientists and the best prediction systems from leading climate centres around the world to produce actionable information for decision-makers.
- Temperature above 1.5°C: There is a 50:50 chance of the annual average global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level for at least one of the next five years.
- Warmest Year: There is a 93% likelihood of at least one year between 2022-2026 becoming the warmest on record and dislodging 2016 from the top ranking.
- The chance of the five-year average for 2022-2026 being higher than the last five years (2017-2021) is also 93%.
- La Nina and El Nino Events: Back-to-back La Niña events at the start and end of 2021 had a cooling effect on global temperatures, but this is only temporary and does not reverse the long-term global warming trend.
- Any development of an El Niño event would immediately fuel temperatures, as it did in 2016, which is until now the warmest year on record.
- Predicted precipitation patterns for the November to March 2022/23-2026/27 average, compared to the 1991-2020 average, suggest increased precipitation in the tropics and reduced precipitation in the subtropics, consistent with the patterns expected from climate warming.
- India Specific Findings :
- One of the primary reasons for the lowering of temperatures over India from next year is the possible increase in rainfall activity in this decade.
- As per the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Indian monsoon will soon enter a positive period after remaining in a negative period since 1971.
- Many parts of India will receive above-normal rainfall. This will keep temperatures low.
- The future trend suggests that the decadal mean value will be close to near normal from 2021 to 2030.
- It will then turn positive, the decade 2031-2040 will be the beginning of a wet period.