Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2025:
The World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2025 reveals that global merchandise trade is projected to decline by 0.2% in 2025.
- The WTO’s revised forecast for global merchandise trade shows a 0.2% decline in 2025.
- If trade tensions escalate further, especially with new tariff measures, the decline could deepen to 1.5%. This marks a sharp contrast from the 2.9% growth in 2024.
- The reactivation of US reciprocal tariffs could cut global trade growth by 0.6% points, while ongoing US-China tariff escalation in 2025 may reduce trade by an additional 0.8% points.
- Despite the challenges in merchandise trade, the global services trade is projected to grow by 4.0% in 2025, slower than expected due to tariff-induced disruptions.
- The decline in goods trade impacts services like transport and travel, while broader uncertainty dampens investment-related services.
- North America is expected to face a sharp 12.6% decline in exports, significantly affecting global trade.
- Asia and Europe are projected to see modest trade growth, with Asia’s exports growing by 1.6%, and Europe’s exports growing by 1.0%.
- Least-developed countries (LDCs), heavily reliant on a narrow range of exports, are particularly vulnerable to the downturn in global trade.
- US-China trade disruption may drive significant trade diversion, with Chinese exports projected to rise by 4%-9% in regions outside North America.
- Meanwhile, US imports from China are expected to fall, creating opportunities for other suppliers, including LDCs, to fill the gap.
- The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts global growth to slow to 2.3% in 2025, signaling a potential shift toward recession, with developing countries being particularly vulnerable.
- As the risks of economic fragmentation and geo-economic confrontation rise, UNCTAD urges increased regional and international policy coordination to strengthen global economic resilience.
- In 2024, India’s rank among leading merchandise exporters (excluding intra-EU trade) dropped to 14th, while its share of global merchandise trade remained steady at 2.2%.
- Similarly, India’s rank among major merchandise importers (excluding intra-EU trade) fell to 7th, with its share unchanged at 3.4%.
- As for commercial services (excluding intra-EU trade), India’s rank as an exporter declined to 6th, with a slight drop in share from 5.4% to 5.3%. In terms of imports, India’s rank remained at 6th, although its share fell slightly from 4.2% to 4.1%.
