Global Food Policy Report: IFPRI
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has released Global Food Policy Report: Climate Change & Food Systems, showing India’s risk for hunger could increase 23% by 2030 due to Climate Change.
- India’s food production could drop 16% and the number of those at risk for hunger could increase 23% by 2030 due to climate change.
- Projections are part of a model that was used to evaluate the impact of climate change on aggregate food production, food consumption(kcal per person per day), net trade of major food commodity groups, and the population at risk of going hungry.
- The number of Indians at risk from hunger in 2030 is expected to be 73.9 million in 2030 and, if the effects of climate change were to be factored in, it would increase to 90.6 million.
- The aggregate food production index would, under similar conditions, drop from 1.6 to 1.5.
- Food production index covers food crops that are considered edible and that contain nutrients.
- Coffee and tea are excluded because, although edible, they have no nutritive value.
- On a positive note, climate change will not impact the average calorie consumption of Indians and this is projected to remain roughly the same at 2,600 kcal per capita per day by 2030 even in a climate change scenario.
- The average temperature across India is projected to rise by between 2.4°C and 4.4°C by 2100. Similarly, summer heat waves are projected to triple by 2100 in India.
- Baseline projections indicate that global food production will grow by about 60% over 2010 levels by 2050 in the context of climate change.
- Production and demand are projected to grow more rapidly in developing countries, particularly in Africa, than in developed countries, due to projected growth in population and incomes.
- Diets are also shifting toward higher-value foods, including more fruits and vegetables, processed foods, and animal-source foods, outside of high-income countries.
- Meat production is projected to double in South Asia and West and Central Africa by 2030 and triple by 2050.
- Despite this growth, per capita consumption levels in developing countries will remain less than half of those in developed countries.
- The demand for processed foods also shows up in the growing production of oil crops: by 2050 production is expected to more than double in Southeast Asia and West and Central Africa.