Monsoon Forecast In India:
Skymet Weather, a private weather forecast company, said that the monsoon in India was likely to be 103% of the long period average (LPA) this year.
- The LPA refers to the average all-India monsoon rainfall of 88 cm, which is a 50-year mean.
- The agency classified the forecast as “healthy normal”.
- The monsoon in 2019 and 2020 was only the third time in a century of back-to-back years of above-normal rainfall (rainfall that is 5% above normal, or 105%) during the season in India.
- This year’s forecast by Skymet falls a little short of the “above normal” mark.
- The odds of an El Nino, characterized by a heating of the equatorial central Pacific over half a degree, are low this year.
- An El Nino is historically associated, in many years, with a weakening of the monsoon over India.
- The monsoon is also expected to be fairly well-distributed, with even September (the month in which the season starts to recede) expected to post 10% more rainfall than normal.
- The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which provides the official forecasts, is expected to announce its forecast later this month.
- Along with the El Nino, another ocean variable, the Indian Ocean Dipole, characterized by a temperature gradient in the western and eastern Indian Ocean, is expected to be slightly negative. A positive dipole usually aids the monsoon.