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Decline in India’s Total Fertility Rate

Decline in India’s Total Fertility Rate:

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 has revealed a steep decline in India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) over the decades.

  • This raises concerns about socio-economic and political repercussions, particularly in southern states.
  • Key Findings of the Study:
    • India’s Fertility Trends: India’s TFR dropped from 6.18 in the 1950s to 1.9 in 2021, below the replacement level of 2.1.
    • By 2100, the TFR in India is projected to fall further to 1.04 (barely one child per woman).
    • Regional Variations in India: Southern states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka achieved replacement-level fertility earlier than northern states.
    • By 2036, Kerala’s aged population is expected to surpass children (23%). High labor wages, quality of life, and internal migration are expected to bring migrant labor to 60 lakh by 2030 (about one-sixth of the State’s population).
    • The demographic shift was driven by high literacy, women’s empowerment, and advances in social and health sectors.